2011/11/3 Fed slices growth outlook, ups jobless view

FED把美國經濟成長率大幅下修，2011年由原本預估計2.7~2.9修正為1.6~1.7，2012年由原本預估計3.3~3.7修正為2.5~2.9。雖然是下修，還是樂觀預期「明年會更好」。
以今年前三季成長率分別為了0.4、1.3、2.5來倒推，FED預估第四季成長率大約在2.2~2.6之間。


Nov. 2, 2011, 2:00 p.m. EDT
By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sliced its growth outlook sharply for this year, 2012 and 2013, and also significantly increased its unemployment rate forecast. The Fed's board members and presidents now see 2011 GDP between 1.6% and 1.7%, 2012 GDP between 2.5% and 2.9%, 2013 GDP between 3% and 3.5% and 2014 GDP between 3% and 3.9%. Its last outlook -- published before the Commerce Department sharply cut its estimates of first- and second-quarter growth -- called for 2011 GDP between 2.7% and 2.9%, 2012 GDP between 3.3% and 3.7%, and 2013 GDP between 3.5% and 4.2%. The unemployment rate is now forecast between 9% and 9.1% this year, between 8.5% and 8.7% in 2012, between 7.8% and 8.2% in 2013 and between 6.8% and 7.7% in 2014. Even the Fed's long-term GDP and jobless forecasts changed, with the GDP estimate sliced by a tenth of a percentage point and the top end of the jobless rate up four-tenths to 6%. On personal consumption expenditure inflation, it now sees 2.7% to 2.9% inflation this year, 1.4% to 2% inflation next year, 1.5% to 2% inflation in 2013 and 1.5% to 2% inflation in 2014.