美國有一家投資機構針對1927年以來的 S＆P 500 企業盈餘年成長率，以及S＆P 500指數未來一年報酬率的關係做了統計，把企業盈餘年成長率分為四種狀況，分別為 ：盈餘年增率 20%以上、年增率 5% ~ 20%、年增率 -20% ~ 5%、年增率低於 -20%。
統計結果發現，指數未來一年報酬率最高的情況，並非盈餘年增率最好的 20%以上那一組，反而是盈餘年增率倒數第二組 -20% ~ 5% 的組別，未來一年指數的報酬率會最高。
我想這也不難理解，盈餘年增率 -20%以下的那一組，多半是景氣急遽下滑的時候，短期內經濟還在持續惡化，因此未來一年指數的報酬率是最差的。而經過一大段大跌之後，市場會呈現盤跌的狀況。當市場由大跌進入盤跌之時，企業盈餘年增率就不會是大幅下滑，而是下滑幅度縮小。再慢慢隨著經濟的修復，景氣狀況略有改善，此時盈餘年增率開始略為轉正，但還馾不上大幅的成長。在這段時間進入股市，應該就是景氣打底的階段，此時進入股市有機會接到相對低點，因此未來一年要有好表現就不意外了。
但是如果方向相反，企業盈餘年增率是由高度成長轉弱，股價會在轉弱初期就展現出較大的修正，等到企業盈餘年增率節節敗退，直到掉到 5% ~ -20%時，股價已反映一大段了，雖然指數可能還是會繼續下跌，但是跌幅會縮小。除非，盈餘年增率真的那麼糟，年增率跌破 -20%，失望性的賣壓將隨恐慌情緒出籠，就會帶來最後一波的急跌。
Good news: Earnings growth is slowing Commentary: A contrarian — and surprising — take on earnings
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Worried that lower earnings growth will lead to a bear market?
You’re not alone. Almost everyone else is concerned too.
But, by following the herd, you run the distinct possibility of becoming too worried: The stock market historically has performed better when earnings growth is slower than when it is faster.
That at least is the conclusion reached by a study conducted by Ned Davis Research, the quantitative research firm. After analyzing year-over-year earnings growth back to 1927, the firm found that the stock market tends to underperform whenever earnings growth is particularly strong.
The reason for this counterintuitive finding, according to Ed Clissold and Dan Sanborn, U.S. market strategists for Ned Davis Research and co-authors of the study: The market senses that high earnings growth is unsustainable, and is therefore discounting an imminent “slower earnings-growth environment.”
Take a look at the accompanying chart. The Ned Davis analysts found that the stock market historically has performed the best during periods in which year-over-year changes in quarterly earnings were either flat or falling modestly: When quarterly earnings growth was less than 5% and not worse than minus 20%, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.64% grew at an annualized average of 12.4%.
This compares to an average annualized return of just 2.4% whenever earnings growth was above 20% and 6.4% when that growth rate was between 5% and 20%.
What does this all mean for the current market?
Earnings per share for the S&P 500 for the quarter we’re in right now are estimated by Standard & Poor’s to be $25.18 on an “operating earnings” basis, and $24.18 on an “as-reported” basis. That’s 0.4% lower and 6.8% higher, respectively, than the comparable totals for the year-ago quarter.
As Clissold and Sanborn put it, these “consensus estimates call for earnings growth to oscillate between the two middle — and most bullish — zones” of the accompanying chart.
Another, perhaps equally counterintuitive implication of the Ned Davis study: If indeed earnings growth slows as expected, growth stocks are likely to outperform value stocks. I found this surprising, since value stocks are less overvalued than growth stocks.
But Clissold and Sanborn explain: “In a slow-growth environment, a premium is placed on companies that continue to deliver top-line and bottom-line growth. Almost by definition, those are growth stocks.”
The bottom line? Once again, it pays to at least consider a contrarian perspective. Without it, you’d risk becoming far more gloomy and pessimistic than the historical data actually suggest is justified.
沒有留言:
張貼留言